High prices to support South Africa’s “at best average” cereal harvest
But high lentil and canola prices and strong wheat yields should help even the ledger after last year’s bumper crop.
According to the latest winter crop production forecast from the Australian Bureau of Agriculture and Resource Economics (ABARES), the Australian harvest is on track to reach 54.8 million tonnes, or 32% more than the 10-year average.
Released yesterday, the ABARES reports a return forecast of more than 20% above the 10-year averages in NSW, WA and Queensland and about 10% higher in Victoria and South Africa.
The total increase in harvest is partly due to record plantings this year of around 23.2 million hectares. Average returns are expected to be higher than long-term averages in each state, but lower than what was achieved last year.
Last year’s harvest was the second highest grossing crop on record in South Australia, reaching $ 2.5 billion in farm gate value from 9.14 million tonnes.
South Africa’s four million hectares planted last year were the seventh largest on record in acreage and were only second in value after the record harvest of $ 2.7 billion in 2010-11.
Grain Producers SA chairman Adrian McCabe said heavy rains across most of the state in June and July saved what was shaping up to be a bad season after an “extraordinarily dry” fall.
He said most parts of the state were in a similar position, potentially with the exception of the southeast and south of the Eyre Peninsula, which looked fine, and parts of the mallee south of Loxton which “were probably doing it a little hard”.
“We had two months of precipitation mainly in June and July – August was below average and September is well below average, so we’re heading into a South Australian season that will be average at best,” he said. -he declares. Daily.
“Canola is probably three weeks later than we would like for premium yield and wheat about two weeks later, but pulses are in a good spot though. “
The Indian government cut tariffs on Australian lentils from 33 percent to 11 percent in July and also cut tariffs from 10 percent to zero.
A heat wave in Canada, one of Australia’s biggest competitors in the lentil market, has also increased demand for the Australian pulse.
McCabe said drought in many key growing regions of the northern hemisphere has also boosted demand for Australian canola and wheat.
“The Indian market has cut tariffs on pulses, bringing them to $ 1,100 to $ 1,200 a tonne, down from about $ 700 last year and our price for canola due to drought in the country. he northern hemisphere grew to nearly $ 900 per tonne, which is up from $ 650 last year, ”he said.
“Canola and lentil prices are at decile 9 or 10 levels, wheat is at decile 8.”
China imposed a combined duty of 80.5% on Australian barley in May 2020, consisting of an anti-dumping duty of 73.6% and a countervailing duty of 6.9%.
McCabe said barley suffered a $ 20 to $ 30 per tonne impact on the back of Chinese tariffs, but was showing resilience amid high livestock prices and increased shipping costs caused by the supply constraints due to the coronavirus pandemic.
“The final destination for a lot of these cultures for us is Indonesia and Saudi Arabia and because we’re only five days on the water for them it helps a bit,” he said.
“Our competition is Russia and Kazakhstan and places like that and they have 30 days on the water to those markets, with high shipping prices.”
The first genetically modified canola crops are in the ground this year in South Australia following the lifting of a 16-year moratorium.
McCabe said there has been around 20 percent use of GM canola in South Australia as many farmers are waiting to see how it will perform.
“There are no issues so the transition has gone smoothly as planned,” he said.
“I think next year you won’t be able to buy seeds for this. People have seen the GM around the place, are quite happy with its appearance and have seen the results. “
Nationally, canola production is forecast to jump 11 percent to a record high of over five million tonnes as planted area increases 24 percent to just over 3 million hectares.
However, GrainGrowers chairman Brett Hosking said border closures between states threatened to disrupt the harvest and lead to labor shortages, especially on the east and west coasts.
“We have to make sure that the skilled professionals who are an essential part of the harvest are able to get to where they need to be,” he said.
“We know producers in Western Australia are worried about being able to fill positions, and on the east coast entrepreneurs are worried about being able to move to Queensland, New South Wales and Victoria.
“The harvest will not wait for the right measures to be put in place. “
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